Scenario Analysis of Inflation Surges: Advanced Forecasting and Policy Design Training Course

Introduction

Inflation surges are among the most pressing challenges for policymakers, financial institutions, and businesses. Driven by shocks such as energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, currency depreciation, and geopolitical instability, inflationary spikes can destabilize economies, erode purchasing power, and undermine long-term growth. Understanding how to anticipate, simulate, and respond to these surges through structured scenario analysis is essential for effective economic management.

The Scenario Analysis of Inflation Surges: Advanced Forecasting and Policy Design Training Course equips participants with practical tools to design and evaluate inflation scenarios, test economic resilience, and prepare policy responses. By blending economic theory, data-driven modeling, and case-based learning, this course enhances forecasting capacity and equips decision-makers with strategies to manage risks in volatile inflationary environments.

Duration: 10 Days

Target Audience:

  • Central bank economists and monetary policy experts
  • Government officials in finance and planning agencies
  • Risk managers and financial analysts
  • Professionals in international financial institutions
  • Academic researchers and postgraduate students in economics and finance
  • Data scientists and quantitative modelers specializing in economic forecasting

Course Objectives:

  1. Understand the causes and consequences of inflation surges
  2. Apply scenario analysis as a tool for inflation forecasting
  3. Identify key domestic and global drivers of inflation spikes
  4. Design baseline, optimistic, and stressed inflation scenarios
  5. Use econometric and simulation models to analyze inflation surges
  6. Integrate uncertainty and volatility into inflation forecasts
  7. Strengthen policy design in response to inflationary pressures
  8. Communicate scenario analysis results to stakeholders
  9. Evaluate the effectiveness of different policy responses
  10. Gain practical skills through hands-on case studies and simulations

Course Modules:

Module 1: Introduction to Inflation Surges

  • Definition and characteristics
  • Historical examples of inflation spikes
  • Causes and triggers
  • Economic and social impacts
  • Why scenario analysis matters

Module 2: Fundamentals of Scenario Analysis

  • Principles of scenario building
  • Baseline vs alternative scenarios
  • Quantitative and qualitative approaches
  • Advantages and challenges
  • Application in macroeconomic forecasting

Module 3: Identifying Inflationary Pressures

  • Demand-side factors
  • Supply-side shocks
  • External drivers
  • Structural vulnerabilities
  • Sector-specific triggers

Module 4: Global Dimensions of Inflation Surges

  • Imported inflation
  • Exchange rate volatility
  • Global commodity cycles
  • Capital flow reversals
  • Spillover effects

Module 5: Econometric Tools for Scenario Analysis

  • VAR and SVAR models
  • DSGE frameworks
  • Time-series forecasting techniques
  • Dealing with structural breaks
  • Practical applications

Module 6: Simulation and Stress Testing Approaches

  • Monte Carlo simulations
  • Stochastic models
  • Nonlinear scenario building
  • Probability distributions
  • Case studies

Module 7: Role of Expectations in Inflation Surges

  • Consumer and business expectations
  • Survey-based measures
  • Market-based indicators
  • Anchoring vs unanchoring
  • Implications for forecasting

Module 8: High-Frequency Data in Scenario Analysis

  • Nowcasting methods
  • Digital economy data sources
  • Real-time monitoring tools
  • Online pricing indicators
  • Integrating big data

Module 9: Sectoral Analysis of Inflation Surges

  • Food and energy shocks
  • Housing and rental costs
  • Wages and labor markets
  • Trade and manufacturing impacts
  • Services sector inflation

Module 10: Policy Responses to Inflation Surges

  • Monetary policy measures
  • Fiscal adjustments
  • Macroprudential interventions
  • Supply-side responses
  • Coordinated international actions

Module 11: Designing Scenarios for Inflation Surges

  • Step-by-step scenario construction
  • Selection of key variables
  • Scenario plausibility checks
  • Linking scenarios to policy needs
  • Real-world applications

Module 12: Communication of Scenario Outcomes

  • Presenting scenario results
  • Visualizing uncertainty
  • Policy communication strategies
  • Managing expectations
  • Stakeholder engagement

Module 13: Evaluating Scenario Effectiveness

  • Assessing robustness
  • Back-testing with past crises
  • Benchmarking against forecasts
  • Identifying gaps
  • Continuous improvement

Module 14: Case Studies of Inflation Surges

  • Oil shocks of the 1970s
  • Post-crisis emerging markets
  • Pandemic-related inflation
  • Currency crises
  • Comparative lessons

CERTIFICATION

  • Upon successful completion of this training, participants will be issued with Macskills Training and Development Institute Certificate

TRAINING VENUE

  • Training will be held at Macskills Training Centre. We also tailor make the training upon request at different locations across the world.

AIRPORT PICK UP AND ACCOMMODATION

  • Airport Pick Up is provided by the institute. Accommodation is arranged upon request

TERMS OF PAYMENT

Payment should be made to Macskills Development Institute bank account before the start of the training and receipts sent to info@macskillsdevelopment.com. For More Details call: +254-114-087-180

 

Scenario Analysis Of Inflation Surges: Advanced Forecasting And Policy Design Training Course in Netherlands
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