Nowcasting Inflation Using Big Data: Real-Time Forecasting and Policy Applications Training Course

Introduction

Traditional inflation measurement often lags behind real-world economic shifts, creating challenges for policymakers and businesses that need immediate insights. Nowcasting, powered by big data and advanced analytics, bridges this gap by delivering near real-time inflation forecasts using diverse datasets such as online prices, financial markets, scanner data, and mobility statistics. By combining econometric models with machine learning techniques, nowcasting enables more timely decision-making in uncertain and volatile environments.

The Nowcasting Inflation Using Big Data: Real-Time Forecasting and Policy Applications Training Course provides participants with cutting-edge knowledge and hands-on experience in designing, implementing, and applying nowcasting models for inflation analysis. Through case studies, simulations, and applied exercises, participants will learn how to harness large, complex datasets for robust inflation forecasting and improve economic policy design, financial market analysis, and business strategy.

Duration: 10 Days

Target Audience:

  • Central bank economists and monetary policy specialists
  • National statistics office staff and inflation analysts
  • Financial market and investment professionals
  • Government policy and fiscal advisors
  • Academic researchers and postgraduate students in economics
  • Professionals in international financial and development institutions

Course Objectives:

  1. Understand the concept and importance of nowcasting in inflation analysis
  2. Explore the role of big data in real-time forecasting
  3. Learn statistical and econometric foundations of nowcasting models
  4. Apply machine learning techniques to inflation nowcasting
  5. Evaluate data sources including online prices, scanner data, and financial indicators
  6. Compare nowcasting performance with traditional CPI-based forecasts
  7. Study global case studies of inflation nowcasting in practice
  8. Strengthen skills in data cleaning, processing, and integration
  9. Communicate nowcasting results effectively to stakeholders
  10. Design and implement practical nowcasting frameworks for policy and research

Course Modules:

Module 1: Introduction to Inflation Nowcasting

  • Definition and purpose of nowcasting
  • Difference between forecasting and nowcasting
  • Importance for policy and markets
  • Historical development of nowcasting methods
  • Global best practices

Module 2: Role of Big Data in Inflation Monitoring

  • Advantages of big data for real-time analysis
  • Key types of big data relevant to inflation
  • Complementarity with official statistics
  • Timeliness and granularity of data
  • International experiences

Module 3: Sources of Big Data for Nowcasting Inflation

  • Online price indices and web scraping
  • Scanner and retail transaction data
  • Commodity and financial market indicators
  • Mobility and consumption-based signals
  • Social media and sentiment data

Module 4: Data Collection Techniques

  • Web scraping methods and tools
  • Using APIs for real-time collection
  • Partnerships with retailers and platforms
  • Real-time survey methods
  • Data ethics and privacy

Module 5: Data Cleaning and Processing for Nowcasting

  • Handling missing values and outliers
  • Aggregation of high-frequency data
  • Statistical normalization techniques
  • Ensuring representativeness
  • Automation in data pipelines

Module 6: Statistical Foundations of Nowcasting

  • Basics of time-series models
  • Rolling averages and smoothing methods
  • Correlation and causality in indicators
  • Dealing with mixed-frequency data
  • Building a baseline model

Module 7: Econometric Models for Nowcasting

  • ARIMA and VAR models
  • Factor models for high-dimensional data
  • State-space models and Kalman filter
  • Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) models
  • Model selection criteria

Module 8: Machine Learning Approaches to Nowcasting

  • Supervised learning for inflation prediction
  • Regression trees and random forests
  • Neural networks and deep learning
  • Feature engineering in big data contexts
  • Evaluation of ML model performance

Module 9: Case Studies of Inflation Nowcasting

  • MIT Billion Prices Project
  • ECB nowcasting models
  • Federal Reserve practices
  • Emerging economy applications
  • Lessons from global experiences

Module 10: Nowcasting and Monetary Policy

  • Role in inflation targeting regimes
  • Policy rate setting with real-time data
  • Crisis response and early warnings
  • Enhancing credibility of central banks
  • Case-based simulations

Module 11: Real-Time Forecasting Dashboards

  • Building interactive dashboards
  • Visualization of real-time trends
  • Communicating uncertainty in forecasts
  • Software tools for dashboard design
  • Stakeholder-focused outputs

Module 12: Comparing Nowcasting with Traditional Forecasting

  • Strengths and weaknesses of CPI-based models
  • Lag in official data versus timeliness of nowcasting
  • Bridging both approaches
  • Practical examples of divergences
  • Implications for policy response

Module 13: Challenges in Inflation Nowcasting

  • Data access and sustainability issues
  • Representativeness of big data sources
  • Model complexity versus transparency
  • Interpretation and credibility risks
  • Technical skill requirements

Module 14: Innovations in Nowcasting Techniques

  • AI and deep learning advances
  • Integration of satellite and geospatial data
  • Blockchain and digital payment datasets
  • Real-time consumer behavior signals
  • Future research directions

CERTIFICATION

  • Upon successful completion of this training, participants will be issued with Macskills Training and Development Institute Certificate

TRAINING VENUE

  • Training will be held at Macskills Training Centre. We also tailor make the training upon request at different locations across the world.

AIRPORT PICK UP AND ACCOMMODATION

  • Airport Pick Up is provided by the institute. Accommodation is arranged upon request

TERMS OF PAYMENT

Payment should be made to Macskills Development Institute bank account before the start of the training and receipts sent to info@macskillsdevelopment.com

For More Details call: +254-114-087-180

 

Nowcasting Inflation Using Big Data: Real-time Forecasting And Policy Applications Training Course in El Salvador
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